Identifying changes in trends in the age standardized incidence of melanoma in Australia
To identify changes in the linear trend of the age-standardized incidence of melanoma in Australia for all persons, males, and females.
A two-piece piecewise linear regression was fitted to the data. The piecewise breakpoint varied through an iterative process to determine the model that best fits the data.
Statistically significant changes in the trendof the age-standardized incidence of melanoma in Australia were found for all persons, males, and females. The optimal breakpoint for all persons and males was at 1998. For females, the optimal breakpoint was at 2005. The trend after these breakpoints was flatter than prior to the breakpoints, but still positive.
ConclusionMelanoma is a significant public health issue in Australia. Overall incidence continues to increase. However, the rate at which the incidence is increasing appears to be decreasing.
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